演讲主题: The Effect of China Connect
主 讲 人: 周思力，复旦大学泛海国际金融学院助理教授
主 持 人: 李安泰，华中科技大学管理学院财务金融系讲师
周思力博士现任复旦大学泛海国际金融学院助理教授。他于2017年8月获得新加坡管理大学李光前商学院金融学博士学位，主要研究方向为公司金融、政治不确定性、创新和市场微结构等。已在Journal of Corporate Finance等国际高水平期刊发表多篇论文。
We study an important capital account liberalization in China: the Shanghai (Shenzhen)-Hong Kong Stock Connect of the mid-2010’s. This program created a channel for cross-border equity investments into a selected set of stocks while the overall capital controls policy remained in place. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find that firm-level investment is negatively affected by US monetary policy shocks and that firms in the Connect are relatively more adversely affected than those that remained outside of it. These effects are economically large, robust, and stronger for firms with a weaker financial condition, higher level of financial constraints, higher equity return volatility, operating in the non-tradable sector. These results point to the adverse consequences that capital liberalization policies can have, and suggest that capital controls can be a way for emerging market economies to curb the negative consequences of global financial cycles. However, we also find that firms in the Connect: raised more cash, enjoyed lower financing costs, and earned higher returns on equity (ROE) and assets (ROA). Our results suggest that firms in the Connect are able to hedge the negative consequences concerning increased sensitivity to external shocks.