2025年第79期(总第1120期)

演讲主题：Transport Priority and Composition Effects in Liver Transplantation

主讲人：姜宝军 圣路易斯华盛顿大学教授

主持人：关旭 供应链管理与系统工程系主任、教授

活动时间：2025年11月10日（周一）14:30-16:00

活动地址: 管院大楼105教室

主讲人简介：

姜宝军，圣路易斯华盛顿大学奥林商学院的市场营销学教授，他拥有斯坦福大学物理学硕士学位与电气工程硕士学位、德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校工商管理硕士（MBA）学位，以及卡内基梅隆大学信息系统硕士学位与博士学位；其当前研究方向包括平台型商业模式、竞争战略、行为经济学、共享经济及营销与运营接口，研究成果已发表于Management Science、Marketing Science、Journal of Marketing Research、Journal of Marketing、Operations Research、Manufacturing & Service Operations Management等顶级期刊；此外，他还担任《Journal of Marketing Research》编辑评审委员会成员，同时是《Production and Operations Management》高级编辑、《Service Science》副主编及《Decision Sciences》副编辑。

活动简介：

China's Green Path set nationwide donor organ transport priority to cut delays and boost liver transplant outcomes. Yet post-policy, average cold ischemia time (CIT) rose and survival fell—despite intended better nonlocal organ transport.

We attribute this to a composition effect: faster travel expanded usable nonlocal livers (previously late). Hospitals accepted more nonlocal grafts (inherently longer CIT than local ones), offsetting logistics gains and raising overall CIT.

We formalize this in a hospital-patient matching model, which shows average CIT rises if nonlocal organ availability/acceptance outweighs per-organ CIT savings. The model also clarifies how hospital rules and patient severity shape policy effects.Empirically, we use a time-based design and CIT distribution (provenance-free) to separate local/nonlocal cases, isolating policy's impact on nonlocal CIT while accounting for local logistics changes and hospital learning. We test predictions on case mix (nonlocal share, marginal grafts, recipient severity) and survival.Our findings highlight a trade-off: logistics reforms speeding individual deliveries may worsen aggregate outcomes via case re-sorting. We caution against KPIs only evaluating transplanted patients and suggest guardrails (e.g., eligibility rules) to preserve urgency and curb priority erosion.