2026年第50期(总第1194期)

演讲主题：Hanging purchase and landing returns: An empirical study of product returns in pre-sale promotions

主讲人：荣鹰 上海交通大学教授

主持人：关旭 教授、供应链管理与系统工程系主任

活动时间：2026年06月26日（周五）10:30-12:00

活动地址：管院大楼107教室

主讲人简介：

荣鹰博士现任上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院教授。他于2010年回国执教于上海交通大学，此前在美国加州大学伯克利分校和里海大学从事博士后科研工作，并在上海交通大学和美国里海大学分别获学士、硕士和博士学位。荣鹰教授主要研究领域为运营管理、新兴商业模型的运作、零售管理、数据驱动的优化模型、实证研究。研究成果发表在 Management Science、Operations Research、Manufacturing & Service Operations Management、Information Systems Research、Production and Operations Management、Naval Research Logistics、IIE Transactions 等国际学术刊物上。

活动简介：

Pre-sale promotions, which split payment into a deposit and a later final payment, are increasingly used by e-commerce platforms to extend promotional periods and stimulate demand. Using transaction-level data from a major Chinese e-commerce platform, we compare pre-sale and regular promotions and employ matching and instrumental variable methods to identify causal effects. Results show that pre-sale promotions increase product return probability by 13.91%. Robustness tests confirm this finding. Further analyses indicate that the effect is driven by the waiting period between payments, which creates cognitive tension and encourages more critical product evaluation. Platforms can reduce returns by shortening waiting periods or enabling automatic final-payment deductions.