2026年第79期(总第1223期)

演讲主题：Industrial Policy, Productivity Jumps, and Resource Allocation

主讲人：杨海生 中山大学岭南学院教授

主持人：李安泰 计算金融系副教授

活动时间：2026年10月30日（周五）10:00-11:30

活动地址：管院大楼107教室

主讲人简介：

杨海生，中山大学岭南学院教授、博士生导师，主要研究产业政策评估、因果推断、AI与深度学习、网络分析。在《经济研究》(9篇)、《管理世界》《经济学(季刊)》等重要期刊发表论文近80篇，知网和Google Scholar引用超5000次。其中5篇论文获奖，所获奖项包括广东省第九届哲学社会科学优秀成果论文类一等奖、广东金融学会第十届全省优秀金融科研成果二等奖，以及第十二届广东省优秀金融科研成果二等奖(2篇)。主持国家自然科学基金面上项目及多项省部级课题，相关政策报告获中央部委采用。

活动简介：

Industrial policy affects aggregate productivity through channels that are not fully captured by supported-firm treatment effects. This study examines China’s Made in China 2025 policy and decomposes its aggregate TFP effect into productivity jumps, within-industry capital reallocation, and indirect general-equilibrium spillovers to untreated industries. Firm-level and industry-year estimates show that low-MRPK firms are more likely to realize subsequent productivity jumps, and the point estimate suggests that MC2025 exposure increases jump size conditional on a jump. The policy also reduces within-industry MRPK dispersion in targeted industries by about 0.300 log points. By contrast, untreated industries with stronger input-output exposure to MC2025 target industries experience higher MRPK dispersion after 2015, so the indirect spillover component partially offsets the direct gains. Combining the three components yields an aggregate TFP gain of 0.062 log points, with contributions of 0.048 from productivity jumps, 0.044 from direct reallocation, and -0.030 from indirect equilibrium spillovers. The evidence shows that the aggregate productivity consequences of industrial policy depend jointly on firm-level upgrading, resource allocation, and equilibrium adjustment.